Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Avoiding the Avoidable: Towards a European Heat Waves Risk Governance

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Book cover Integrated Risk Governance

Part of the book series: IHDP-Integrated Risk Governance Project Series ((IHDP-IRGPS))

Abstract

Climate change is already underway and will continue in the future. Measurements show that Global Mean Temperature (GMT) has already increased by 0.76 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, and the climate system is committed to an additional increase of 0.6 °C due to historic emissions (IPCC 2007). Given the recent growth in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (GCP 2010), this temperature increase will only be the lower boundary of what the future will bring.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    According to our simplified ontology we understand by natural systems mainly uncontrolled ecosystems, such as wild living animals, oceans, or wild forests; by semi-natural systems mainly controlled systems such as managed forests, agricultural systems, or the world’s livestock; by technical systems such human designed and managed artifacts as houses, machines, or technical infrastructures (roads, power lines, or similar constructions); and by social systems we intend human institutions and societies, including human agents and their bodies. We are well aware that this is a somewhat arbitrary categorization, as there are gradual differences. Nevertheless we need some ideal types to clarify what we focus upon.

  2. 2.

    As most human dominated ecosystems are less diverse than natural ones (the species composition of natural rain forests compared to that of nearby plantations, for example), they are less resilient and show a greater dependency on external intervention, such as provisioning of nutrients or water. This makes human-dominated ecosystems usually more vulnerable than natural ones.

  3. 3.

    Demographic effects will aggravate climate change risks, as the proportion of the elderly in Europe will increase dramatically. In 2004, 75.3 million of the 456.8 million EU 25 inhabitants were older than 65, and 18.2 million older than 80. In 2050, EU 25 will have about 453.8 million inhabitants, but 133.3 million will be 65+, and 49.9 million will be 80+ (DG ECFIN 2006).

  4. 4.

    We refer to the European notion of federalism that focuses on the decentralist perspective of a federal structure, as for example realized in Germany, in contrast to a centralist political and administrative tradition, for which in Europe France still provides a good example.

  5. 5.

    Frequentists define probabilities on the basis of historical frequencies (e.g. tumbling a dice ideally an infinite number of times), where as Bayesians define them as subjective measures of un certainty. There is, therefore, a frequentist and a Bayesian concept of probability.

  6. 6.

    “A climate change discourse is a thematically focused and (more or less) coupled sequence of publicly visible arguments in various contexts (or framings) that different social actors are engaged in, in order to influence (1) one another, (2) specific boundary conditions of social action (such as politics), and (3) the general public so that the resource endowments, interests and worldviews of the speaking actors have a higher chance to prevail in the social interpretation and individual or collective decision making processes” (Reusswig and Lass 2010, p. 158).

  7. 7.

    If funds for heat wave risk management do not allow for specialized permanent staff, it might be equally effective to train other staff that communicates with vulnerable target groups on a regular basis.

References

  • Alexander, L.V., X. Zhang, T.C. Peterson, et al. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D05109. doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • André, J.-C., M. Déqué, P. Rogel, et al. 2004. The 2003 summer heat wave and its seasonal forecasting. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 336(6): 491–503.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barriopedro, D., E.M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, et al. 2011. The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science 332(6026): 220–224. doi:10.1126/science.1201224.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bassil, K., D.C. Cole, K. Smoyer-Tomic, et al. 2007. What is the evidence on applicability and effectiveness of public health interventions in reducing morbidity and mortality during heat episodes?. Vancouver: National Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health.

    Google Scholar 

  • Beniston, M., and H.F. Díaz. 2004. The 2003 heatwave as an example of summers in a greenhouse climate: observations and climate model simulations for Basel, Switzerland. Global Planetary Change 44(1–4): 73–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beniston, M., D. Stephenson, O. Christensen, et al. 2007. Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change 81(Supplement 1): 71–95.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bouwer, L.M. 2011. Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 92(1): 39–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chase, T.N., K. Wolter, R.A. Pielke Sr, et al. 2006. Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context? Geophysical Research Letters 33: L23709. doi:10.1029/2006GL027470.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ciais, Ph., M. Reichstein, N. Viovy, et al. 2005. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437(7058): 529–533.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ciscar, J.-C. 2009. Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the peseta (projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of the European union based on bottom-up analysis) research project. Luxembourg: Publication Office of the European Union.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ciscar, J.-C., A. Iglesias, L. Feyen, et al. 2011. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe. PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America) 108(7): 2678–2683.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Conti, S. 2011. Heat wave and mortality of elderly. In Encyclopedia of environmental health, ed. J.O. Nriagu, 113–134. London: Elsevier Science.

    Google Scholar 

  • Corfee-Morlot, J., I. Cochran, S. Hallegatte, et al. 2011. Multilevel risk governance and urban adaptation policy. Climatic Change 104(1): 169–197. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9980-9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costanza, R., R. d’Arge, R. de Groot, et al. 1997. The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387(6630): 253–260.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Curriero, F.C., K.S. Heiner, J.M. Samet, et al. 2002. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. American Journal of Epidemiology 155(1): 80–87.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’Ippoliti, D., P. Michelozzi, C. Marino, et al. 2010. The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project. Environmental Health 9(1): 37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DG ECFIN (European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs). 2006. The impact of ageing on public expenditure: projections for the EU25 member states on pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers (2004–2050). European Economy. Special Report 1. Luxembourg. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication6654_en.pdf.

  • Dhainaut, J.F., Y.E. Claessens, C. Ginsburg, et al. 2004. Unprecedented heat-related deaths during the 2003 heat wave in paris: Consequences on emergency departments. Critical Care 8(1): 1–2.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fink, A.H., T. Brücher, A. Krüger, et al. 2004. The 2003 European summer heatwaves and drought—synoptic diagnosis and impacts. Weather 59(8): 209–216.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fouillet, A., G. Rey, V. Wagner, et al. 2008. Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? International Journal of Epidemiology 37(2): 309–317.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frich, A., L.V. Alexander, P. Della-Marta, et al. 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 19: 193–212. doi:10.3354/cr019193.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Global Carbon Project (GCP). 2010. Global carbon budget 2009. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/09/files/GCP2010_CarbonBudget2009.pdf.

  • Hajat, S., S.C. Sheridan, M.J. Allen, et al. 2010. Heat–health warning systems: A comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days. American Journal of Public Health 100(6): 1137–1144. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2009.169748.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte S., and Corfee-Morlot J., 2011. Understanding climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation at city scale: an introduction. Climatic Change, 104(1), Special Issue: Understanding Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation at City Scale: 1–12. DOI:10.1007/s10584-010-9981-8.

  • Hallegatte, S., J.-C. Hourcade, and P. Ambrosi. 2007. Using climate analogues for assessing climate change economic impacts in urban areas. Climatic Change 82(1–2): 47–60. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9161-z.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, et al. 2010. Global surface temperature change. Reviews of Geophysics 48: RG4004. doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hinkel, J., S. Bisaro, T. Downing, et al. 2009. Learning to adapt, narratives of decision makers adapting to climate change. In Making climate change work for us: European perspectives on adaptation and mitigation strategies, ed. M. Hulme, and H. Neufeldt, 113–134. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hübler, M., G. Klepper, and S. Peterson. 2007. Costs of climate change—the effects of rising temperatures on health and productivity in Germany. Kiel Working Paper No. 1321. Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

    Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ed. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). 2005. IRGC white paper No 1. Risk governance—towards an integrative approach. Geneva: IRGC.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). 2008. An introduction to the IRGC risk governance framework. Geneva: IRGC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaeger, C.C., J. Krause, A. Haas, et al. 2008. A method for computing the fraction of attributable risk related to climate damages with an application to the alpine heat wave 2003. Risk Analysis 28(4): 815–823. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01070.x.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaeger, C.C., O. Renn, E.A. Rosa, et al. 2001. Risk, uncertainty, and rational action. London: Earthscan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalkstein, L.S., S.C. Sheridan, A.J. Kalkstein, et al. 2009. Heat/health warning systems: development, implementation, and intervention activities. In Biometeorology for adaptation to climate variability and change, ed. K.L. Ebi, I. Burton, and G.R. McGregor, 33–48. Berlin: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-8921-3_3.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Koppe, C. 2005. Health-related assessment of thermal stress, taking into account short-term adaptation to local weather conditions (Gesundheitsrelevante bewertung von thermischer belastung unter berücksichtigung der kurzfristigen anpassung der bevölkerung an die lokalen witterungsverhältnisse). Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Freiburg, Germany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koppe, C., S. Kovats, G. Jendritzky, et al. 2004. Heat-waves: risks and responses., Health and global environmental change, series no 2 Copenhagen: World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kosatsky, T., and B. Menne. 2005. Preparedness for extreme weather among national ministries of health of WHO’s European region. In Climate change and adaptation strategies for human health, ed. B. Menne, and K.L. Ebi, 297–329. Darmstadt: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kovats, R.S., and K.L. Ebi. 2006. Heatwaves and public health in Europe. European Journal of Public Health 16(6): 592–599. doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckl049.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kovats, R.S., and S. Hajat. 2008. Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annual Review of Public Health 29: 41–55. doi:10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kovats, R.S., and G. Jendritzky. 2006. Heat-waves and human health. In Climate change and adaptation strategies for human health, ed. B. Menne, and K.L. Ebi, 63–97. Darmstadt: Steinkopff.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lissner, T., A. Holsten, C. Walther, et al. 2011. Towards sectoral and standardised vulnerability assessments: The example of heatwave impacts on human health. Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0231-5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liukaityte, J., and C. Koppe. 2009. Heat-health warning systems in Europe. http://www.isse.ucar.edu/climatehealth/2009/presentations/Liukaityte_HHWS.pdf.

  • Matthies, F., and B. Menne. 2009. Prevention and management of health hazards related to heatwaves. International Journal of Circumpolar Health 68(1): 8–22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGeehin, M.A., and M. Mirabelli. 2001. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives 109(suppl. 2): 185–189.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGregor, G., K. Ebi, and P. Bessemoulin et al. 2010. Heat waves and health: guidance on warning system development. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/opags/documents/HeatWavesandHealthGuidance_26July2010.pdf.

  • McMichael, A.J., R.E. Woodruff, and S. Hales. 2006. Climate change and human health: Present and future risks. Lancet 367(9513): 859–869. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68079-3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl, G., and C. Tebaldi. 2004. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 305(5686): 994–997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michelozzi, P., F. de’Donato, L. Bisanti, et al. 2005. The impact of the summer 2003 heatwaves on mortality in four Italian cities. Eurosurveillance 10(7–9): 161–164.

    Google Scholar 

  • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis report. Washington: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Health Service (NHS). 2006. Heatwave plan for England: Protecting health and reducing harm from extreme heat and heatwaves. UK: Department of Health.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nogueira, P.J. 2005. Examples of heat warning systems: Lisbon’s ICARO’s surveillance system, Summer 2003. In Extreme weather events and public health responses, ed. W. Kirch, B. Menne, and R. Bertollini, 141–160. Heidelberg: Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Nye, J.S., and J. Donahue. 2000. Governance in a globalising world. Washington: Brookings Institution Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Patz, J.A., D. Campbell-Lendrum, T. Holloway, et al. 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438(7066): 310–317.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Renn, O. 2008. Risk governance: coping with uncertainty in a complex world. London: Earthscan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reusswig, F. 2010. The new climate change discourse: A challenge for environmental sociology. In Environmental sociology: European perspectives and interdisciplinary challenges, ed. M. Gross, and H. Heinrichs, 34–61. Dordrecht: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reusswig, F., and W. Lass. 2010. Post-carbon ambivalences—the new climate change discourse and the risks of climate science. // Böschen S., and Wehling P. Ambiguous progress. Science, Technology & Innovation Studies, 6(2): 155–181.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine, J., S. Cheung, S. Le Roy, et al. 2008. Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. Comptes Rendus Biologies 331(2): 171–178.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, P.J. 2001. On the definition of heat waves. Journal of Applied Meteorology 40(4): 762–775. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0762:OTDOAH>2.0.CO;2.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenau, J.N. 1992. Governance, order, and change in world politics. In Governance without government. Order and change in world politics, ed. J.N. Rosenau, and E.O. Czempiel, 1–29. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Schär, C., P.L. Vidale, D. Luthi, et al. 2004. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427(6972): 332–336. doi:10.1038/nature02300.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schifano, P., G. Cappai, M. De Sario, et al. 2009. Susceptibility to heat wave-related mortality: A follow-up study of a cohort of elderly in Rome. Environmental Health 8(11): 50–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schönwiese, C.-D. 2007. Will the climate become more extreme: A statistical analysis (Wird das Klima extremer? Eine statistische Analyse). In Climate change—insights, reviews, and prospects (Der klimawandel—einblicke, rückblicke und ausblicke), ed. W. Endlicher, and F.-W. Gerstengarbe. Germany: Potsdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Seppälä, O., and J. Jokela. 2011. Immune defence under extreme ambient temperature. Biology Letters 7(1): 119–122. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2010.0459.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi, P.J., N. Li, Q. Ye, et al. 2010. Research on integrated disaster risk governance in the context of global environmental change. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 1(1): 17–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shuster, S. 2010. Will Russia’s heat wave end its global-warming doubts? Time Magazine online. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2008081,00.html#ixzz1NNHxChxk. Accessed 2 Aug.

  • Siliverstovs, B., R. Ötsch, C. Kemfert, et al. 2009. Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 24(2): 311–326.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simón, F., G. López-Abente, E. Ballester, et al. 2005. Mortality in Spain during the heatwaves of summer 2003. Eurosurveillance 10(7): 156–160.

    Google Scholar 

  • Souch, C., and S. Grimmond. 2006. Applied climatology: Urban climate. Progress in Physical Geography 30(2): 270–279.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern, N. 2006. The economics of climate change: the stern review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stott, P.A., D.A. Stone, and M.R. Allen. 2004. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432(7017): 610–614. doi:10.1038/nature03089.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Swiss, Re. 2011. Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2010: A year of devastating and costly events. Sigma 1/2011. Zurich: Swiss Re.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). 2006. Excessive heat events guidebook. Washington: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Health Organization Europe (WHO Europe). (2008a). Heat-health action plans: Guidance, ed. Mathies, F., G. Bickler, and N. Cardeñosa Marín et al. Copenhagen: WHO Europe.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Health Organization Europe (WHO Europe). 2008b. Improving public health responses to extreme weather/heat-waves—EuroHEAT. Meeting Report, Bonn, Germany, 22–23 March 2007. Copenhagen: WHO Europe.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

    Wiebke Lass, Armin Haas, Jochen Hinkel & Carlo Jaeger

Authors
  1. Wiebke Lass
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Armin Haas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jochen Hinkel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Carlo Jaeger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wiebke Lass .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, People's Republic

    Peijun Shi

  2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Res, Telegrafenberg A 31, Potsdam, 14406, Germany

    Carlo Jaeger

  3. Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing, 100875, China, People's Republic

    Qian Ye

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2013 Beijing Normal University Press, Beijing and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Lass, W., Haas, A., Hinkel, J., Jaeger, C. (2013). Avoiding the Avoidable: Towards a European Heat Waves Risk Governance. In: Shi, P., Jaeger, C., Ye, Q. (eds) Integrated Risk Governance. IHDP-Integrated Risk Governance Project Series. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31641-8_8

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation