Skip to main content

A Spatial Sensitivity Analysis of a Spatially Explicit Model for Myxomatosis in Belgium

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Cellular Automata (ACRI 2016)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNTCS,volume 9863))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

Motivated by their ability to mimic complex biological and natural processes, many spatially explicit models (SEMs) have been proposed during the last two decades for simulating such processes. Yet, a sensitivity analysis (SA) of such models is typically not performed, or model sensitivity is only studied over time on the basis of aggregated quantities, due to the lack of an appropriate framework. Taking a SEM for myxomatosis among European rabbits in Belgium as a model SEM, we conduct a spatial SA and investigate to what extent the sensitivity of this model varies spatially and whether or not this should become common practice when developing a SEM.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Anderson, R.M., May, R.M.: Population biology of infectious diseases: Part 1. Nature 280, 361–367 (1979)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Chitnis, N., Hyman, J.M., Cushing, J.M.: Determining important parameters in the spread of malaria through the sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model. Bull. Math. Biol. 70, 1272–1296 (2008)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  3. Dwyer, G., Levin, S.A., Buttel, L.: A simulation model of the population dynamics and evolution of myxomatosis. Ecol. Monogr. 60, 423–447 (1990)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Fenner, F., Fantini, B.: The discovery of myxoma virus. In: Fenner, F., Fantini, B. (eds.) Biological Control of Vertebrate Pests: The History of Myxomatosis, an Experiment in Evolution, pp. 65–92. CABI Publishing, Wallingford, United Kingdom (1999)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Fenner, F., Ross, J.: The European Rabbit: The History and Biology of a Successful Colonizer. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1994)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Fisher, P., Abrahart, R.J., Herbinger, W.: The sensitivity of two distributed non-point source pollution models to the spatial arrangement of the landscape. Hydrol. Process. 11, 241–252 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Frey, H.C., Patil, S.R.: Identification and review of sensitivity analysis methods. Risk Anal. 22, 553–578 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Grimm, V., Railsback, S.F.: Individual-Based Modeling and Ecology. Princeton University Press, Princeton (2005)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. Joubert, L., Leftheriotis, E., Mouchet, J.: La Myxomatose. L’Expansion Scientifique Française, Paris (1972)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Kritas, S., Dovas, C., Fortomaris, P., Petridou, E., Farsang, A., Koptopoulos, G.: A pathogenic myxoma virus in vaccinated and non-vaccinated commercial rabbits. Res. Vet. Sci. 85, 622–624 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Ligmann-Zielinska, A., Jankowski, P.: Spatially-explicit integrated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of criteria weights in multicriteria land suitability evaluation. Environ. Model. Softw. 57, 235–247 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Lilburne, L., Tarantola, S.: Sensitivity analysis of spatial models. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 23, 151–168 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Lombardi, L., Fernández, N., Moreno, S., Villafuerte, R.: Habitat-related differences in rabbit (oryctolagus cuniculus) abundance, distribution, and activity. J. Mammal. 84, 26–36 (2003). American Society of Mammalogists

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Marano, N., Arguin, P.M., Pappaioanou, M.: Impact of globalization and animal trade on infectious disease ecology. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 13, 1807–1809 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Marcot, B.G., Singleton, P.H., Schumaker, N.H.: Analysis of sensitivity and uncertainty in an individual-based model of a threatened wildlife species. Nat. Resour. Model. 28, 37–58 (2015)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  16. Marlier, D., Mainil, J., Sulon, J., Beckers, J.F., Linden, A., Vindevogel, H.: Study of the virulence of five strains of amyxomatous myxoma virus in crossbred New Zealand white/Californian conventional rabbits, with evidence of long-term testicular infection in recovered animals. J. Comp. Pathol. 122, 101–113 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Massada, A.B., Carmel, Y., Koniak, G., Noy-Meir, I.: The effects of disturbance based management on the dynamics of mediterranean vegetation: A hierarchical and spatially explicit modeling approach. Ecol. Model. 220, 2525–2535 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. McLeod, R.G., Brewster, J.F., Gumel, A.B., Slonowsky, D.A.: Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for a SARS model with time-varying inputs and outputs. Math. Biosci. Eng. 3, 527–544 (2006)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  19. Ministère de l’Agriculture: Service Vétérinaire: Bulletin sanitaire. Ministère de l’Agriculture, Service Vétérinaire, Brussels, Belgium (1953)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Rinaldi, P.R., Dalponte, D.D., Vénere, M.J., Clausse, A.: Cellular automata algorithm for simulation of surface flows in large plains. Simul. Model. Pract. Theory 15, 315–327 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Lumpkin, S., Seidensticker, J.: Rabbits: The Animal Answer Guide. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Saint-Geours, N., Lavergne, C., Bailly, J., Grelot, F.: Change of support in spatial variance-based sensitivity analysis. Math. Geosci. 44, 945–958 (2012)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  23. Saltelli, A., Chan, K., Scott, E.M.: Sensitivity Analysis. Wiley, West Sussex (2000)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  24. Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Gatelli, D., Saisana, M., Tarantola, S. (eds.): Global Sensitivty Analysis: The Primer. Wiley, Chichester (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Saltelli, A.: Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices. Comput. Phys. Commun. 145, 280–297 (2002)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  26. Sobol, I.M.: On sensitivity estimates for nonlinear mathematical models. Matematicheskoe Modelirovanie 2, 112–118 (1990)

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  27. Tang, W., Jia, M.: Global sensitivity analysis of a large agent-based model of spatial opinion exchange: A heterogeneous multi-GPU acceleration approach. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 104, 485–509 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Tarantola, S., Nardo, M., Saisana, M., Gatelli, D.: A new estimator for sensitivity analysis of model output: An application to the e-business readiness composite indicator. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 91, 1135–1141 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. von Neumann, J.: The general and logical theory of automata. In: Jeffres, L.A. (ed.) The Hixon Symposium on Cerebral Mechanisms in Behaviour, pp. 1–41. Wiley, Pasadena (1951)

    Google Scholar 

  30. Walsh, S., Brown, D.G., Bian, L., Allen, T.R.: Effects of spatial scale on data certainty: An assessment through data dependency and sensitivity analyses. In: Proceedings of the First International Symposium on the Spatial Accuracy of Natural Resource Data Bases, pp. 151–160. American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (1994)

    Google Scholar 

  31. Wu, J., Dhingra, R., Gambhir, M., Remais, J.V.: Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application. J. R. Soc. Interface 10, 20121018 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was carried out using the STEVIN Supercomputer Infrastructure at Ghent University, funded by Ghent University, the Flemish Supercomputer Center (VSC), the Hercules Foundation and the Flemish Government.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jan M. Baetens .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this paper

Cite this paper

Baetens, J.M., De Baets, B. (2016). A Spatial Sensitivity Analysis of a Spatially Explicit Model for Myxomatosis in Belgium. In: El Yacoubi, S., WÄ…s, J., Bandini, S. (eds) Cellular Automata. ACRI 2016. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 9863. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44365-2_9

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44365-2_9

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-44364-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-44365-2

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics