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Big History and Anticipation

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Abstract

This chapter will introduce the generic foresight process framework, examine a variety of different types of futures thinking, “locate” the use of macrohistorical models within the broader foresight process, examine some key aspects of the Big History perspective, and use this perspective to think systematically about the “contours” of the possible futures of human civilization at the global scale, as it emerges from the complex dynamics of the present. We will make use of the “eight-threshold” formulation of Big History due to David Christian and examine some of the conceptual possibilities that arise when we consciously and systematically consider the question of what the next major threshold in Big History – what we might therefore call “Threshold 9” – may look like in broad outline. We find that, of the four main “generic” archetypal futures identified by James Dator, the most probable global future currently in prospect – barring a major catastrophic shock, technological energy breakthrough, or similar low-probability “wildcard” event – is a slowly unfolding collapse or “descent” over a timescale of decades to centuries toward a “constrained” or “disciplined” human society characterized by ever-declining access to easy sources of fossil fuel-based energy. Such a future trajectory clearly has major implications for the level of complexity possible for human civilization. This suggests undertaking an anticipatory program of continuing research and exploration into both the underlying nature and the emergent characteristics of the coming transition to “Threshold 9,” in order to prepare for, and perhaps mitigate, its more unwelcome aspects.

This chapter is an edited, revised, and updated abridgment of earlier work that has explored or set the foundations for using Big History as a framing perspective for anticipation at the global scale via the use of the generic foresight process framework (Voros 2003a, 2005, 2006a, 2006b, 2013).

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  1. Swinburne Business School, Faculty of Business and Law, Swinburne University of Technology, John Street, Hawthorn, VIC, 3122, Australia

    Joseph Voros

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  1. Joseph Voros
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Correspondence to Joseph Voros .

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  1. Dept of Sociology & Social Research, University of Trento Dept of Sociology & Social Research, Trento, Italy

    Roberto Poli

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Voros, J. (2017). Big History and Anticipation. In: Poli, R. (eds) Handbook of Anticipation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_95-1

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