Effects of Future Climate Trends on Crop Management

Abstract

To assess the impact of climate change and variability in the weather on the timing of crop management activities, dynamically coupled model runs of the DANUBIA components Biological, SNT, NaturalEnvironment and Farming were performed. Calculations are based on a GLOWA-Danube scenario including the climate trend REMO regional, the climate variant Baseline and the societal scenario Baseline. Results of the scenario calculation are compared with the reference period for four sample districts, which represent different site conditions within the drainage basin. The increase in air temperature over the scenario period leads to a shortening of the growing period of winter wheat and spring barley and, therefore, also for the cultivation periods. With very similar sowing dates, on average, the harvest of winter wheat is earlier by 21 days at the end of the scenario period compared to the reference period for all districts. Furthermore, the harvest dates for winter and spring cereals move closer to each other.