Abstract
In this chapter, we address portfolio optimization at a sub-portfolio level. Even a “mini” portfolio—such as a single molecule with numerous indication opportunities—can pose a significant challenge to an organization; there are many interdependencies, correlations, and synergies to consider, weigh, and trade off. Here we present a case study that considers the challenge of optimizing this sub-portfolio by determining the best sequence of three potential indications. The same methods can be applied to a molecule with even more indication opportunities, a group of related molecules, or an entire portfolio.
An erratum to this chapter can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09075-7_12
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- BC:
-
Metastatic breast cancer
- DPL:
-
Decision programming language by syncopation
- eNPV:
-
Expected NPV, a probability weighted average of all possible NPV outcomes, including technical risk
- G-BA:
-
Gemeinsamer Bundesausschuss (Federal Joint Committee, the supreme decision-making body of the healthcare system in Germany)
- IP:
-
Intellectual property
- IQWiG:
-
Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen (scientific unit that assess effectiveness, quality, and efficiency of diagnostic and therapeutic methods and pharmaceuticals in Germany)
- MM:
-
Multiple myeloma
- MODA:
-
Multiple objective decision analysis
- NPV:
-
Net present value, a sum of discounted cash flows over a defined time horizon using an agreed upon discount rate
- NSCLC:
-
Non-small-cell lung cancer
- PC:
-
Prostate cancer
- PD:
-
Pharmacodynamics
- PK:
-
Pharmacokinetics
- POS:
-
Probability of success (technical success for a phase)
- PTD:
-
Patient treatment day
- PTRS:
-
Probability of technical and regulatory success (combined POS for all phases)
- PV:
-
Present value
- RA:
-
Rheumatoid arthritis
- R & D:
-
Research and development
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Kloeber J, Kim CK (2012) Horses for courses: portfolio management methods for different stages of drug development. KROMITE, LLC, Lambertville, White Paper
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Kloeber, J., Stojanovic, A., Kim, C.K. (2015). Indication Sequencing for a New Molecular Entity with Multiple Potential Oncology Indications. In: Antonijevic, Z. (eds) Optimization of Pharmaceutical R&D Programs and Portfolios. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09075-7_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09075-7_8
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