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Famine Prediction Without Prevention: The Political Economy of Information Use

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Abstract

Marked progress in the ability to predict famines in the Sahel and Horn of Africa since the mid 1980s has not resulted in parallel improvements in famine prevention. A certain naivety has characterised the quest, by donors and governments, for ever more sophisticated famine early warning systems (EWS). The implicit assumption has been that better and more timely information can automatically help to neutralise the conflicts of interest which surround famine relief. But information can do little to reconcile such differences and has a high political value, especially when its exploitation is tied to the allocation of scarce resources. The coincidence of war and famine in much of Africa raises the political stakes of famine early warning information and its use even higher.

This paper draws on collaborative work with Margaret Buchanan-Smith (IDS) and Celia Petty (Save the Children Fund UK). See Buchanan-Smith et al., 1992.

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References

  • Buchanan-Smith, M., S. Davies and C. Petty, ‘Famine Early Warning Systems and Response: the Missing Link? Summary of Findings and Conclusions’, Paper presented at the conference ‘Predicting and Preventing Famine: an Agenda for the 1990s’, 4–6 November 1992, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton and Save the Children Fund (UK), London, mimeo.

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© 1993 Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited

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Davies, S. (1993). Famine Prediction Without Prevention: The Political Economy of Information Use. In: Morgan, R., Lorentzen, J., Leander, A., Guzzini, S. (eds) New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-22738-9_20

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