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Population Density is a Key Factor in Declining Human Fertility

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Abstract

In studying the complex determinants of human fertility, social scientists have given little attention to population density, although reproduction has been shown to be density-dependent for a wide variety of other species. Using fixed effects models on the time series of 145 countries and controlling for key social and economic variables, we find a consistent and significant negative relationship between human fertility and population density. Moreover, we find that individual fertility preferences also decline with population density. These findings suggest that population density should be included as a variable in future studies of fertility determinants.

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Notes

  1. Our analyses utilized several definitions of “density” (i.e., population per total land area, arable land, potentially arable land) (Lutz & Qiang 2002)

  2. For the European Union we had data for 94 NUTS2 regions

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria

    Wolfgang Lutz

  2. Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Prinz-Eugen-Straße 8, Vienna, 1040, Austria

    Maria Rita Testa

  3. Konrad Lorenz Institute for Ethology, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Savoyenstrasse 1a, Vienna, 1160, Austria

    Dustin J. Penn

Authors
  1. Wolfgang Lutz
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  2. Maria Rita Testa
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  3. Dustin J. Penn
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wolfgang Lutz.

Appendix

Appendix

List of variables and data sources

Total Fertility Rate: average number of children per woman

Data sources: United Nations. 2002. World Population Prospect. 2002 Revision. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.

Population density: persons per square kilometer

Data source for the time series: World Bank. 2002. World Development Indicators. Washington. Data source for Europe: EUROSTAT. 2001. Europäische Sozialstatistik Bevölkerung. Luxemburg.

Infant mortality: deaths for 1,000 live births

Data source: United Nations. 2002. World Population Prospect. 2002 Revision. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. New York.

Gross Domestic Product: GDP-per capita, 1995 US$ as constant

Data source: World Bank. 2002. World Development Indicators. Washington.

Female labor force participation: female labor force divided by female population aged 15–64.

Data source: World Bank. 2002. World Development Indicators. Washington.

Female literacy: literate women divided by female population aged 15+

Data source: International Labor Office. 2003. Key Indicators of the Labor Market. Third Edition. Geneva.

Proportion urban: proportion of persons living in urban areas

Data source for the time series: World Bank. 2002. World Development Indicators. Washington.

Personal ideal family size: personal ideal number of children

Data source: European Commission. 2001. Eurobarometer 56.2. Brussels.

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Lutz, W., Testa, M.R. & Penn, D.J. Population Density is a Key Factor in Declining Human Fertility. Popul Environ 28, 69–81 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-007-0037-6

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